Commercial survival pressure
Commercial lease survival calculator
Estimate whether a commercial site can survive weak early trading after fit-out, deposit, opening costs, and rent pressure.
Worked survival screen
Example only. Use the full check before relying on a site decision.
Upfront cash needed
£81,000
Cash after opening
£9,000
Downside revenue
£14,976
Cost base
£14,100
Downside burn
£0
Six-month test
Pass
This example passes because cash after opening is positive and the downside case has no monthly burn. The cash buffer is still thin, so the decision needs fit-out, lease terms, and evidence checked carefully.
Survival model
What commercial lease survival means
Commercial lease survival asks whether the site has enough cash left after opening costs to withstand weak early trading. It is not just a monthly profit question.
Upfront cash needed
Upfront cash needed = fit-out + rent deposit + legal fees + opening stock + other setup costs
This is the cash required before the site can trade properly. It should include all obvious opening commitments, not just fit-out.
Cash after opening
Cash after opening = starting cash - upfront cash needed
This is the buffer left after the opening spend has been funded. A site can look attractive but still start trading with too little cash.
Downside monthly position
Downside monthly position = downside revenue - known monthly cost base
This tests the site under weaker trading assumptions, before optimism has had a chance to hide the risk.
Survival runway
Survival runway = cash after opening ÷ monthly downside burn
If the downside case burns cash each month, runway estimates how many weak months the remaining cash can cover.
Six-month test
The survival test needs both opening cash and downside resilience.
The site passes only if cash after opening is not negative and either the downside case has no monthly burn or cash covers at least six months of downside burn.
Six-month survival test: cash after opening must be positive, then the downside case must either have no monthly burn or enough cash to cover six months of downside burn.
A no-burn downside case is useful, but it is not the full answer if opening cash is short. A site still needs enough buffer for timing delays, missing costs, and early trading uncertainty.
Upfront cash
Why upfront cash matters before signing
A lease decision can become risky before the first sale. The opening cash requirement shows how much capital is locked into the site before trading can prove the idea.
Fit-out spend lands before revenue
Furniture, equipment, signage, fixtures, decoration, extraction, and works often need funding before the site proves demand.
Deposits reduce the buffer
Rent deposits, advance rent, legal fees, opening stock, licences, and setup costs can leave less cash for the first months.
Thin cash makes small misses painful
If the opening buffer is small, a quiet launch, delayed works, or one missing cost can quickly change the decision.
Fragility
A site can look viable but still be fragile.
Expected trading can hide weak opening cash. The survival view connects fit-out, deposit, revenue risk, and monthly cost base so the lease is tested before it becomes expensive to walk away.
The monthly model looks fine
Rent burden and break-even customers may look workable on expected trading, especially when revenue assumptions are confident.
Opening cash is quietly tight
The same site can be fragile if fit-out, deposits, fees, and stock consume almost all starting cash before opening day.
Weak trading exposes the gap
A downside case shows whether the site can handle quieter weeks, slower ramp-up, or a lower average spend.
No burn is not the whole answer
If cash after opening is thin, the site may pass the monthly downside case but still have little room for delays or missed costs.
Downside case
How downside revenue changes the decision
The downside case asks what happens if customer numbers, average spend, or trading ramp-up are weaker than expected. That can turn a comfortable-looking plan into monthly burn.
Connected checks
Survival should sit alongside rent burden and break-even customers.
Survival runway is strongest when it is read with the two earlier pressure screens. Together they show rent pressure, daily trading target, and opening cash resilience.
Rent burden
Rent burden shows how much expected revenue is absorbed by rent before the rest of the cost base is considered.
View rent burden calculatorBreak-even customers
Break-even customers translate rent and known monthly costs into a daily customer target.
View break-even calculatorFull check
How the YieldLens commercial check goes further
The full commercial lease check connects opening cash, rent pressure, break-even customers, downside trading, and six-month survival in one decision-support view.
Next step
Pressure-test the lease before opening costs lock you in.
Run the full commercial check to test rent burden, break-even customers, upfront cash, downside revenue, monthly burn, and six-month survival before signing.
Important disclaimer
YieldLens UK provides indicative decision-support only. It is not financial advice, legal advice, tax advice, a valuation, or a substitute for professional due diligence.